Islamabad: The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has issued a warning to Punjab and Sindh, cautioning that they may face up to a 35% water shortage during the final phase of the current cropping season. The declining water levels in Tarbela and Mangla dams pose a significant threat to wheat crops, which are in the critical irrigation stage before harvesting.
In a letter addressed to the Secretary of Irrigation, IRSA informed all four provinces that both reservoirs are nearing their dead levels. Khalid Idrees Rana, IRSA’s Director of Regulation, highlighted the likelihood of a 30-35% water deficit for Punjab and Sindh.
According to IRSA’s latest data, Tarbela Dam currently holds only 73,000 acre-feet of water, with its level recorded at 1,409 feet—just 9 feet above its dead level of 1,400 feet. The dam's maximum storage capacity is 1,550 feet. On Friday, water inflow was recorded at 17,000 cusecs, while the outflow stood at 20,000 cusecs.
Similarly, Mangla Dam’s usable water storage stands at 235,000 acre-feet, with a level of 1,088 feet—only 28 feet above its dead level of 1,060 feet. Its maximum reservoir capacity is 1,242 feet. The dam received an inflow of 16,400 cusecs on Friday, while 18,000 cusecs were released.
These figures indicate a rapid depletion of water reserves. IRSA warned provinces that daily discharge trends suggest both Tarbela and Mangla could hit dead levels in the coming days. The advisory aligns with IRSA’s earlier projection from October 2, 2024, which predicted this situation would arise within the first ten days of March 2025.
While it is common for reservoirs to reach dead levels twice a year, the timing of this crisis is particularly concerning. Wheat crops, already affected by shifts in government policies leading to lower-than-targeted sowing, are now in their crucial final irrigation stage before harvesting later this month.
Recent rainfall has had a positive impact on standing crops and has contributed to the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). IRSA stated that, based on the current water account report, supplies are being maintained near provincial indent levels despite the shortage.
From October 1, 2024, to February 28, 2025, Punjab experienced a 20% water shortfall, while Sindh faced a 14% deficit. The IRSA Advisory Committee had initially approved a 16% shortfall in its October 2, 2024, assessment.
IRSA expressed hope that upcoming rainfall will improve the situation. Meanwhile, provinces have been urged to adopt necessary precautionary measures to avoid any adverse impact on agriculture and water supply.
